Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data.

BACKGROUND: The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources. CONCLUSION: We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats

A novel low-cost approach to estimate the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in the catchment area of three hospitals in Bangladesh

Acute meningoencephalitis syndrome surveillance was initiated in three medical college hospitals in Bangladesh in October 2007 to identify Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases. We estimated the population-based incidence of JE in the three hospitals\u27 catchment areas by adjusting the hospital-based crude incidence of JE by the proportion of catchment area meningoencephalitis cases who were admitted to surveillance hospitals. Instead of a traditional house-to-house survey, which is expensive for a disease with low frequency, we attempted a novel approach to identify meningoencephalitis cases in the hospital catchment area through social networks among the community residents. The estimated JE incidence was 2.7/100,000 population in Rajshahi (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-4.9), 1.4 in Khulna (95% CI = 0.9-4.1), and 0.6 in Chittagong (95% CI = 0.4-0.9). Bangladesh should consider a pilot project to introduce JE vaccine in high-incidence areas

Raw sap consumption habits and its association with knowledge of nipah virus in two endemic districts in Bangladesh

Human Nipah virus (NiV) infection in Bangladesh is a fatal disease that can be transmitted from bats to humans who drink contaminated raw date palm sap collected overnight during the cold season. Our study aimed to understand date palm sap consumption habits of rural residents and factors associated with consumption. In November-December 2012 the field team interviewed adult respondents from randomly selected villages from Rajbari and Kushtia Districts in Bangladesh. We calculated the proportion of people who consumed raw sap and had heard about a disease from raw sap consumption. We assessed the factors associated with raw sap consumption by calculating prevalence ratios (PR) adjusted for village level clustering effects. Among the 1,777 respondents interviewed, half (50%) reported drinking raw sap during the previous sap collection season and 37% consumed raw sap at least once per month. Few respondents (5%) heard about NiV. Thirty-seven percent of respondents reported hearing about a disease transmitted through raw sap consumption, inclusive of a 10% who related it with milder illness like diarrhea, vomiting or indigestion rather than NiV. Respondents who harvested date palm trees in their household were more likely to drink sap than those who did not own date palm trees (79% vs. 65% PR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3, p&lt;0.001). When sap was available, respondents who heard about a disease from raw sap consumption were just as likely to drink it as those who did not hear about a disease (69% vs. 67%, PR 1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1, p = 0.512). Respondents' knowledge of NiV was low. They might not have properly understood the risk of NiV, and were likely to drink sap when it was available. Implementing strategies to increase awareness about the risks of NiV and protect sap from bats might reduce the risk of NiV transmission

A controlled trial to reduce the risk of human Nipah virus exposure in Bangladesh

Human Nipah virus (NiV) infection, often fatal in Bangladesh, is primarily transmitted by drinking raw date palm sap contaminated by Pteropus bats. We assessed the impact of a behavior change communication intervention on reducing consumption of potentially NiV-contaminated raw sap. During the 2012-2014 sap harvesting seasons, we implemented interventions in two areas and compared results with a control area. In one area, we disseminated a "do not drink raw sap" message and, in the other area, encouraged only drinking sap if it had been protected from bat contamination by a barrier ("only safe sap"). Post-intervention, 40% more respondents in both intervention areas reported knowing about a disease contracted through raw sap consumption compared with control. Reported raw sap consumption decreased in all areas. The reductions in the intervention areas were not significantly greater compared to the control. Respondents directly exposed to the "only safe sap" message were more likely to report consuming raw sap from a protected source than those with no exposure (25 vs. 15%, OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.6, P &lt; 0.001). While the intervention increased knowledge in both intervention areas, the "only safe sap" intervention reduced exposure to potentially NiV-contaminated sap and should be considered for future dissemination

Incidence of acute diarrhea-associated death among children < 5 years of age in Bangladesh, 2010-12

Although acute diarrheal deaths have declined globally among children = 13.6 km. Diarrhea contributes to childhood death at a higher proportion than when considering it only as the sole underlying cause of death. These data support the use of interventions aimed at preventing acute diarrhea, especially available vaccinations for common etiologies, such as rotavirus

A novel low-cost approach to estimate the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in the catchment area of three hospitals in Bangladesh

Acute meningoencephalitis syndrome surveillance was initiated in three medical college hospitals in Bangladesh in October 2007 to identify Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases. We estimated the population-based incidence of JE in the three hospitals' catchment areas by adjusting the hospital-based crude incidence of JE by the proportion of catchment area meningoencephalitis cases who were admitted to surveillance hospitals. Instead of a traditional house-to-house survey, which is expensive for a disease with low frequency, we attempted a novel approach to identify meningoencephalitis cases in the hospital catchment area through social networks among the community residents. The estimated JE incidence was 2.7/100,000 population in Rajshahi (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8–4.9), 1.4 in Khulna (95% CI = 0.9–4.1), and 0.6 in Chittagong (95% CI = 0.4–0.9). Bangladesh should consider a pilot project to introduce JE vaccine in high-incidence areas.Repon C. Paul, Mahmudur Rahman, Emily S. Gurley, M. Jahangir Hossain, Serguei Diorditsa, ASM Mainul Hasan, Sultana S. Banu, ASM Alamgir, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Hardeep Sandhu, Marc Fischer and Stephen P. Lub

Respiratory Viruses Associated Hospitalization among Children Aged <5 Years in Bangladesh: 2010-2014.

BACKGROUND:We combined hospital-based surveillance and health utilization survey data to estimate the incidence of respiratory viral infections associated hospitalization among children aged < 5 years in Bangladesh. METHODS:Surveillance physicians collected respiratory specimens from children aged <5 years hospitalized with respiratory illness and residing in the primary hospital catchment areas. We tested respiratory specimens for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, influenza, adenovirus and rhinoviruses using rRT-PCR. During 2013, we conducted a health utilization survey in the primary catchment areas of the hospitals to determine the proportion of all hospitalizations for respiratory illness among children aged <5 years at the surveillance hospitals during the preceding 12 months. We estimated the respiratory virus-specific incidence of hospitalization by dividing the estimated number of hospitalized children with a laboratory confirmed infection with a respiratory virus by the population aged <5 years of the catchment areas and adjusted for the proportion of children who were hospitalized at the surveillance hospitals. RESULTS:We estimated that the annual incidence per 1000 children (95% CI) of all cause associated respiratory hospitalization was 11.5 (10-12). The incidences per 1000 children (95% CI) per year for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus and influenza infections were 3(2-3), 0.5(0.4-0.8), 0.4 (0.3-0.6), 0.4 (0.3-0.6), and 0.4 (0.3-0.6) respectively. The incidences per 1000 children (95%CI) of rhinovirus-associated infections among hospitalized children were 5 (3-7), 2 (1-3), 1 (0.6-2), and 3 (2-4) in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. CONCLUSION:Our data suggest that respiratory viruses are associated with a substantial burden of hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh

Respondents reported caused for not drinking raw date palm sap during previous sap collection season from Rajbari and Kushtia Districts, 2012.

<p>Respondents reported caused for not drinking raw date palm sap during previous sap collection season from Rajbari and Kushtia Districts, 2012.</p

Demographic characteristics, knowledge about Nipah and raw sap consumption habits in the previous sap collection season by gender and district.

<p>Demographic characteristics, knowledge about Nipah and raw sap consumption habits in the previous sap collection season by gender and district.</p